Last week I broke even with my picks going 5-5, netting -0.45 units.
I currently stand +6.05 units on the season, and have 12 CFB best bets for week 5.
Let’s get into it.
Iowa -3 (-110) @ Maryland | Friday @ 8:00
I love betting at least one game before the weekend slate really kicks in. This game stood out to me my first time looking over the board. I LOVE Iowa in this game. Iowa’s offense has definetly struggled so far this season, but the defense is incredible and they are going to make it very hard for Taulia Tagovailoa and co. to have any offensive consistency tonight. An Iowa win tonight would likely mean that their game against Penn State next weekend would be a battle of two 5-0 teams. Iowa is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. I expect them to run the ball well, play tough defense, and come out of this game 5-0 on the season.
Buffalo +7 (-115) vs. Western Michigan | Saturday @ 12:00
Buffalo is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games at home. They are 6-0 ATS as a home dog. They are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games. Sure, they haven’t been as dominant as they were last year. However, they are going to hold down the fort this week in front of their home crowd. Western Michigan has been the better team thus far, but this is the week that Buffalo reminds everyone that the MAC runs through them. The Bulls have a very balance offensive game plan that I think Western Michigan is going to struggle to slow down. Take Buffalo.
North Carolina -20 (-110) vs. Duke | Saturday @ 12:00
This is going to be a game where Sam Howell gets back on track. He struggled severely against Georgia Tech, as he fumbled 3 times and was sacked 8 times. Dukes defense is very weak; they gave up 33 points to Kansas, who is barely an FBS team at this point. Duke is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against ACC opponents, I think UNC scores 60 in this one and runs Duke off the field.
Duke/North Carolina over 72.5 (-110) | Saturday @ 12:00
The game total has gone over in 4 of Duke’s last 5 games and it has gone over in 5 of UNC’s last 6. As I said above, Duke’s defense is very weak. UNC should put up around 60 points, and Duke will chip in a few scores to cash the over.
Notre Dame +2 (-110) vs. Cincinnati | Saturday @ 2:30
Make no mistake, this is Cincinnati’s super bowl. They are going to give the Irish everything they can handle. However, it won’t be enough. This spread caught my eye right away. Getting Notre Dame as an underdog at home is to good to be true. Sure, Cincinnati is 3-0 and ranked in the top-10, but they haven’t really been tested yet. The Notre Dame defense was nothing short of incredible against Wisconsin and came up big all game long. They should be coming into this game with a ton of confidence and ready to put on a show for the home crowd. Notre Dame’s offense will make the big plays when they need to and they will come out victorious.
Cincinnati/Notre Dame under 50.5 (-110) | Saturday @ 2:30
Both teams will struggle offensively out of the gate in this one. Cincinnati’s offense will go through some growing pains early, as they have not faced a defense quite like Notre Dame’s yet this season. With Notre Dame’s QB situation still up in the air I think the Irish may face some confusion on the offensive side of the ball early on and start slow enough to keep the total under 50.5.
Coastal Carolina -34.5 (-110) vs. UL-Monroe | Saturday @ 2:30
Coastal Carolina put on a clinic a week ago against Umass, blowing them out 53-3. UL-Monroe is on a similar level to Umass. Coastal has a legit defense that will have no problem holding UL-Monroe’s 119th ranked (out of 130) offense to under 10 points. Coastal is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games. I’m very confident in the Chanticleers this week.
Army -9 (-110) @ Ball State | Saturday @ 5:00
Ball State is a lackluster 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. They are terrible in the trenches and Army will control this game from start to finish. Army has a very strong defense this year and I do not expect Ball State to get on the board much.
Liberty +1.5 (-110) @ UAB | Saturday @ 7:00
Liberty’s defense has come to play this year through the first four weeks. They rank 11th in the nation, allowing just 234 yards per game. They are coming off of a tough loss to Syracuse, where they lost by a field goal. UAB’s defense on the other hand ranks 86th in the FBS, allowing 363.3 yards per game. This is a recipe for a lot of points on the scoreboard for Liberty’s offense led by dual threat QB Malik WIllis. The stats don’t lie, this kid is the real deal. Willis is averaging 204 yards through the air and 75 yards on the ground so far this season and is completing 71% of his passes. Liberty is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games. I’m riding with the Flames in this one.
Vanderbilt -14 (-130) vs. UConn | Saturday @ 7:30
This is a bit of a weird game. Vanderbilt is coming off a game where they got absolutely dominated by an incredible Georgia team, meanwhile UConn is coming off a very “good” loss against Wyoming. I use quotes around good because their is no such thing as a good loss, but when your a 31 point underdog and only lose by 2, I’ll give you a little credit. I am not expecting UConn to be able to hang around with Vanderbilt the same way they were with Wyoming. I think the talent gap will show in this game, home field advantage will come into play, and Vanderbilt runs away with this one.
Oregon State -2.5 (-110) vs. Washington | Saturday @ 9:00
Oregon State boasts a 16-6 ATS record in their last 22 games. Their defense has been tremendous at forcing turnovers and I expect them to continue that success in this game. They also dominate the game on the ground, which should work in their favor this week as Washington is unproven against a strong rushing attack.
Fresno State -10 (-110) vs. Hawaii | Saturday @ 11:00
Looking for a reason to bet on Fresno State? Look no further than their QB, Jake Haener. Haener leads the entire FBS with 1,842 passing yards and 15 touchdowns while completing 73% of his passes. I don’t expect Hawaii to be able to keep up with Fresno for more than a half. Fresno State is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road against Hawaii. Take Fresno State.
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